On Assessing the Effect of Climatic Phenomena on the Moscow Electric Network Facilities
Keywords:
vulnerability assessment, hazardous climatic phenomena, wire breaks, ohmic losses, adaptation measures
Abstract
Moscow is one of the planet’s major megalopolises located in the cold climate zone, and its fuel and energy complex serves as the basis of the highly branched and intricate habitability supporting systems of the city. On the average, Moscow consumes 93--97 million Gcal of heat and 54.5 billion kWh of electricity per annum. For securing stable power supply to the Moscow load center, an extensive system of transmission networks operating with the required level of reliability under all weather conditions must be available. Overhead power lines are the network components most susceptible to hazardous climatic phenomena. The functional dependences of failure flows on climatic factors that have been established for the components of transmission (220 and 500 kV) and distribution (up to 110 kV) networks allow failure rates to be predicted. An intricate nature of the dependences of economic damages arising from the effect of climatic factors in the electric network facilities, as well as the uncertainty and complexity of formalizing the problem of calculating the adaptation potential determine the relevance of the topic under study. The article presents an algorithm for quantitatively assessing the vulnerability of the Moscow electric network facilities to climate change phenomena. The damage expected from the breaks of wires in high-voltage overhead lines of voltage levels up to 110 kV and over 220 kV caused by hazardous natural phenomena is evaluated, and proposals for taking adaptation measures aimed at reducing damages inflicted to the city’s electric grid system by hazardous natural phenomena are given.
References
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---
Для цитирования: Гашо Е.Г., Гужов С.В., Кролин А.А., Фрей Д.А., Губочкин Н.М. К оценке последствий воздействия климатических явлений на электросетевое хозяйство Москвы // Вестник МЭИ. 2018. № 4. С. 71—77. DOI: 10.24160/1993-6982-2018-4-71-77.
#
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---
For citation: Gasho E.G., Guzhov S.V., Krolin A.A., Frey D.A., Gubochkin N.M. On Assessing the Effect of Climatic Phenomena on the Moscow Electric Network Facilities. MPEI Vestnik. 2018;4:71—77. (in Russian). DOI: 10.24160/1993-6982-2018-4-71-77.
2. Распоряжение Мэра Москвы №288-РМ от 28.04.17 г. «Схема и программа перспективного развития электроэнергетики города Москвы на 2017 — 2022 гг.».
3. Stocker, T.F. e. a. IPCC 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: University Press, 2013.
4. Semenov V.A. e. a. The Impact of North Atlantic-Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature // J. Climate. 2010. V. 23. Pp. 5668—5677.
5. Pachauri R.K., Reisinger A. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Rep. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, 2007.
6. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and 11 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
7. Wang W. e.a. Quantifying Tree and Soil Carbon Stocks in a Temperate Urban Forest in Northeast China //Forests. 2016. V. 7. P. 200.
8. Lorenz K., Lal R. Biogeochemical C and N cycles in urban soils // Environment Internat. J. 2009. V. 35. No. 1. Pp. 1—8.
9. Monckton C. e. a. Why Models Run Hot: Results from an Irreducibly Simple Climate Model // Sci.Bulletin. 2015. V. 60. P. 122.
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13. Klimenko M. e. a. Auroral, Geomagnetic and Ionospheric Disturbances During St. Patrick's Day Geomagnetic Storms in 2013 and 2015 // Proc. Eighth Workshop Solar Influences on the Magnetosphere, Ionosphere and Atmosphere. Sunny Beach, 2016. Pp. 53—58.
14. Niedźwiedź T. e. a. The Historical Time Frame (Past 1000 Years) Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. Regional Climate Studies Series. Heidelberg, N.-Y., Dordrecht, London: Springer, 2015. Pp. 51—68.
15. Итоги реализации годовых инвестиционных программ ПАО «ФСК ЕЭС» [Офиц. сайт] http://www.fsk-ees.ru/investments/results_of_implementation_of_annual_investment_programs/ (дата обращения 10.09.2017).
16. Письмо Минэкономразвития России № 28175- АВ/Д03 от 16.09.2016 г. «Об ожидаемых итогах социально-экономического развития в 2016 году и уточненном прогнозе социально-экономического развития на плановый период 2017 и 2018 годов» [Электрон. ресурс] http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_215956/d2dfd96fc2cee215fa4b5f771852b9f47b4d3f8b/ (дата обращения 15.10.2017).
17. ПАО «МОЭСК» [Офиц. сайт] http://www.moesk. ru/client/tariffs/ (дата обращения 01.11.2017).
18. Укрупненные стоимостные показатели линий электропередачи и подстанций напряжением 35 — 750 кВ». Вестник МЭИ. № 4. 2018 Ч. 1. Укрупненные стоимостные показатели магистральных линий электропередачи и подстанций напряжением 35 — 750 кВ ОАО «ФСК ЕЭС» [Электрон. ресурс] https://deloros.ru/FILEB/Sbornik_FSK.pdf (дата обращения 05.10.2017).
19. НЦС 81-02—2012. Нормативы цены строительства.
20. МДС 81-35.2004. Методика определения стоимости строительной продукции на территории Российской Федерации.
---
Для цитирования: Гашо Е.Г., Гужов С.В., Кролин А.А., Фрей Д.А., Губочкин Н.М. К оценке последствий воздействия климатических явлений на электросетевое хозяйство Москвы // Вестник МЭИ. 2018. № 4. С. 71—77. DOI: 10.24160/1993-6982-2018-4-71-77.
#
1. Vserossiyskiy Nauchno-issledovatel'skiy Institut Gidrometeorologicheskoy Informatsii [Ofits. Sayt] http://meteo.ru/data (Data Obrashcheniya 01.10.2017). (in Russian).
2. Rasporyazhenie Mera Moskvy №288-RM ot 28.04.17 g. «Skhema i Programma Perspektivnogo Razvitiya Elektroenergetiki Goroda Moskvy na 2017 — 2022 gg.». (in Russian).
3. Stocker, T.F. e. a. IPCC 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: University Press, 2013.
4. Semenov V.A. e. a. The Impact of North Atlantic-Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature. J. Climate. 2010;23:5668—5677.
5. Pachauri R.K., Reisinger A. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Rep. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, 2007.
6. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and 11 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
7. Wang W. e.a. Quantifying Tree and Soil Carbon Stocks in a Temperate Urban Forest in Northeast China. Forests. 2016; 7:200.
8. Lorenz K., Lal R. Biogeochemical C and N cycles in urban soils. Environment Internat. J. 2009; 35; 1:1—8.
9. Monckton C. e. a. Why Models Run Hot: Results from an Irreducibly Simple Climate Model. Sci.Bulletin. 2015;60:122.
10. Malakoff D. Journals Investigate Climate Skeptic Author's Ties to Fossil Fuel Firm as New Allegations Arise. Science [Elektron. Resurs] http://www.sciencemag. org/news/2015/06/journals-investigate-climate-skeptic-author-s-ties-fossil-fuel-firm-new-allega-tions (Data Obrashcheniya 05.10.2017).
11. Merchant B. How Climate Change Denial Still Gets Published in Peer-Reviewed Journals. Motherboard. [Elektron. Resurs] https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/ article/bmjpg5/peer-reviewing-climate-denial (Data Obrashcheniya 03.10.2017).
12. Tollefson J. Documents Spur Investigation of Climate Sceptic. Nature. [Elektron. Resurs] Nature Publishing https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/documents-spur-inves-tigation-of-climate-skeptic (Data Obrashcheniya 07.10.2017).
13. Klimenko M. e. a. Auroral, Geomagnetic and Ionospheric Disturbances During St. Patrick's Day Geomagnetic Storms in 2013 and 2015. Proc. Eighth Workshop Solar Influences on the Magnetosphere, Ionosphere and Atmosphere. Sunny Beach, 2016:53—58.
14. Niedźwiedź T. e. a. The Historical Time Frame (Past 1000 Years) Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. Regional Climate Studies Series. Heidelberg, N.-Y., Dordrecht, London: Springer, 2015:51—68.
15. Itogi Realizatsii Godovyh Investitsionnyh Programm PAO «FSK EES» [Ofits. Sayt] http://www.fsk-ees. ru/investments/results_of_implementation_of_annual_investment_programs/ (Data Obrashcheniya 10.09.2017). (in Russian).
16. Pis'mo Minekonomrazvitiya Rossii № 28175-AV/D03 ot 16.09.2016 g. «Ob Ozhidaemyh Itogah Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo Razvitiya v 2016 Godu i Utochnennom Prognoze Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo Razvitiya na Planovyy Period 2017 i 2018 Godov» [Elektron. Resurs] http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_215956/d2dfd96fc2cee215fa4b5f771852b9f47b4d3f8b/ (Data Obrashcheniya 15.10.2017). (in Russian).
17. PAO «MOESK» [Ofits. Sayt] http://www.moesk.ru/client/tariffs/ (Data Obrashcheniya 01.11.2017). (in Russian).
18. Ukrupnennye Stoimostnye Pokazateli Liniy Elektroperedachi i Podstantsiy Napryazheniem 35 — 750 kV». Ch. 1. Ukrupnennye Stoimostnye Pokazateli Magistral'nyh Liniy Elektroperedachi i Podstantsiy Napryazheniem 35 — 750 kV OAO «FSK EES» [Elektron. Resurs] https://deloros.ru/FILEB/Sbornik_FSK.pdf (Data Obrashcheniya 05.10.2017). (in Russian).
19. NTSS 81-02—2012. Normativy Tseny Stroitel'stva. (in Russian).
20. MDS 81-35.2004. Metodika Opredeleniya Stoimosti Stroitel'noy Produktsii na Territorii Rossiyskoy Federatsii. (in Russian).
---
For citation: Gasho E.G., Guzhov S.V., Krolin A.A., Frey D.A., Gubochkin N.M. On Assessing the Effect of Climatic Phenomena on the Moscow Electric Network Facilities. MPEI Vestnik. 2018;4:71—77. (in Russian). DOI: 10.24160/1993-6982-2018-4-71-77.
